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The new approach uses samples from infected humans to allow real-time monitoring of pathogens circulating in human populations, and enable vaccine-evading bugs to be quickly and automatically identified. This could inform the development of vaccines that are more effective in preventing disease.

The approach can also quickly detect emerging variants with resistance to antibiotics. This could inform the choice of treatment for people who become infected - and try to limit the spread of the disease.

It uses genetic sequencing data to provide information on the genetic changes underlying the emergence of new variants. This is important to help understand why different variants spread differently in human populations.

There are very few systems in place to keep watch for emerging variants of infectious diseases, apart from the established COVID and influenza surveillance programmes. The technique is a major advance on the existing approach to these diseases, which has relied on groups of experts to decide when a circulating bacteria or virus has changed enough to be designated a new variant.

By creating ‘family trees’, the new approach identifies new variants automatically based on how much a pathogen has changed genetically, and how easily it spreads in the human population – removing the need to convene experts to do this. 

It can be used for a broad range of viruses and bacteria and only a small number of samples, taken from infected people, are needed to reveal the variants circulating in a population. This makes it particularly valuable for resource-poor settings.

The report is published today in the journal Nature.

“Our new method provides a way to show, surprisingly quickly, whether there are new transmissible variants of pathogens circulating in populations - and it can be used for a huge range of bacteria and viruses,” said Dr Noémie Lefrancq, first author of the report, who carried out the work at the University of Cambridge’s Department of Genetics.

Lefrancq, who is now based at ETH Zurich, added: “We can even use it to start predicting how new variants are going to take over, which means decisions can quickly be made about how to respond.” 

“Our method provides a completely objective way of spotting new strains of disease-causing bugs, by analysing their genetics and how they’re spreading in the population. This means we can rapidly and effectively spot the emergence of new highly transmissible strains,” said Professor Julian Parkhill, a researcher in the University of Cambridge’s Department of Veterinary Medicine who was involved in the study.

Testing the technique

The researchers used their new technique to analyse samples of Bordetella pertussis, the bacteria that causes whooping cough. Many countries are currently experiencing their worst whooping cough outbreaks of the last 25 years. It immediately identified three new variants circulating in the population that had been previously undetected.

“The novel method proves very timely for the agent of whooping cough, which warrants reinforced surveillance given its current comeback in many countries and the worrying emergence of antimicrobial resistant lineages,” said Professor Sylvain Brisse, Head of the National Reference Center for whooping cough at Institut Pasteur, who provided bioresources and expertise on Bordetella pertussis genomic analyses and epidemiology.

In a second test, they analysed samples of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the bacteria that causes Tuberculosis. It showed that two variants with resistance to antibiotics are spreading.

“The approach will quickly show which variants of a pathogen are most worrying in terms of the potential to make people ill. This means a vaccine can be specifically targeted against these variants, to make it as effective as possible,” said Professor Henrik Salje in the University of Cambridge’s Department of Genetics, senior author of the report.

He added: “If we see a rapid expansion of an antibiotic-resistant variant, then we could change the antibiotic that’s being prescribed to people infected by it, to try and limit the spread of that variant.”

The researchers say this work is an important piece in the larger jigsaw of any public health response to infectious disease.

A constant threat

Bacteria and viruses that cause disease are constantly evolving to be better and faster at spreading between us. During the COVID pandemic, this led to the emergence of new strains: the original Wuhan strain spread rapidly but was later overtaken by other variants, including Omicron, which evolved from the original and were better at spreading. Underlying this evolution are changes in the genetic make-up of the pathogens.

Pathogens evolve through genetic changes that make them better at spreading. Scientists are particularly worried about genetic changes that allow pathogens to evade our immune system and cause disease despite us being vaccinated against them. 

“This work has the potential to become an integral part of infectious disease surveillance systems around the world, and the insights it provides could completely change the way governments respond,” said Salje.

The research was primarily funded by the European Research Council.

Reference: Lefrancq, N. et al: ‘Learning the fitness dynamics of pathogens from phylogenies.’ January 2025, DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08309-9
 

Researchers have come up with a new way to identify more infectious variants of viruses or bacteria that start spreading in humans - including those causing flu, COVID, whooping cough and tuberculosis.

The approach will quickly show which variants of a pathogen are most worrying in terms of the potential to make people ill. This means a vaccine can be specifically targeted against these variants, to make it as effective as possible.Henrik SaljeMilan Krasula on Getty

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YesLicence type: Attribution

Former University of Cambridge Vice-Chancellor Professor Sir Leszek Borysiewicz, an Honorary Fellow of Wolfson College and Homerton College, is made Knight Grand Cross (GBE) for services to cancer research, clinical research, medicine and to charities.

Professor Ijeoma Uchegbu, who has been President of Wolfson College since October 2024, becomes a Dame (DBE) for services to chemical sciences and inclusion and diversity. Prof Uchegbu is a renowned expert in the field of pharmaceutical science and was most recently Professor of Pharmaceutical Nanoscience at University College London. Her research has focussed on methods that can be used to help drugs reach their target more effectively and reduce the likelihood of uncomfortable side effects. While at UCL she spearheaded a project to improve outcomes for both staff and students from under-represented ethnic groups. She is is a Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences and an Honorary Fellow of the Royal Society of Chemistry.

She said: “I’m absolutely thrilled. I wouldn’t say I’m humbled – I know people say that, but when I saw the letter at the Porters’ Lodge what I felt was an overwhelming sense of gratitude and pride. In my wildest dreams I never believed I would get such an award.”

Professor Ashley Moffet, Professor of Reproductive Immunology, is made Companion of the Most Distinguished Order of Saint Michael and Saint George (CMG) for services to reproductive health. A Fellow of King's College, she is the foremost international authority on the immunology of human reproduction and her work on genetic research has helped explain high rates of pre-eclampsia and maternal mortality in Ugandan populations. She is a Fellow of both the Academy of Medical Sciences and the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists. 

She said: "I am delighted by this honour that is a tribute to the hard work and dedication of my many colleagues both here in Cambridge and in Uganda who are working together so tirelessly to support women in the field of maternal health."

Professor Gilly Carr is Professor of Conflict Archaeology and Holocaust Heritage and receives an OBE for services to Holocaust research and education. Professor Carr, a Fellow of St Catharine's College, is a member of both the UK delegation of the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) and the academic advisory board for the UK Holocaust Memorial Centre. Professor Carr has a particular research interest in wartime incarceration, internment and imprisonment. 2024 saw the publication of her latest book 'A Materiality of Internment' which drew on over 15 years of research and interviews with more than 65 former internees. 

She said: “I am absolutely thrilled for my research and teaching to be recognised in this way. I've been working hard on behalf of victims of Nazism and the Holocaust for 15 years and for this to be seen as nationally important and worthwhile encourages me to continue my work with vigour.”

Professor Rachel Oliver, who also receives an OBE, is a materials engineer, inventor and commercial spinout founder. A Fellow of Robinson College, she is currently Director of the Cambridge Centre for Gallium Nitride and Chief Scientific Officer of Poro Technologies Ltd. (Porotech). Her research is in understanding and engineering the small-scale structure of semiconductor materials to enable new technologies to develop. Prof Oliver is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Engineering and is a passionate advocate for equality, diversity and inclusion in science and engineering. 

She said: “I am delighted to receive this honour and it is vital that I acknowledge the fabulous teams that I work with both in the University of Cambridge and at Porotech, a company that spun out from my research group.  I hope I can encourage more people to get involved in semiconductors in the UK. The semiconductor ecosystem has been an exciting place to work throughout my career, but never more so than right now, with both research and industry rapidly growing and stepping up to address some of the most pressing challenges we face.”  

Academics and staff at both the University of Cambridge and Colleges feature in the 2025 list, which recognises the achievements and service of people across the UK.

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Yes

The near future could see AI assistants that forecast and influence our decision-making at an early stage, and sell these developing “intentions” in real-time to companies that can meet the need – even before we have made up our minds.

This is according to AI ethicists from the University of Cambridge, who say we are at the dawn of a “lucrative yet troubling new marketplace for digital signals of intent”, from buying movie tickets to voting for candidates. They call this the Intention Economy.

Researchers from Cambridge’s Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence (LCFI) argue that the explosion in generative AI, and our increasing familiarity with chatbots, opens a new frontier of “persuasive technologies” – one hinted at in recent corporate announcements by tech giants.

“Anthropomorphic” AI agents, from chatbot assistants to digital tutors and girlfriends, will have access to vast quantities of intimate psychological and behavioural data, often gleaned via informal, conversational spoken dialogue. 

This AI will combine knowledge of our online habits with an uncanny ability to attune to us in ways we find comforting – mimicking personalities and anticipating desired responses – to build levels of trust and understanding that allow for social manipulation on an industrial scale, say researchers.

“Tremendous resources are being expended to position AI assistants in every area of life, which should raise the question of whose interests and purposes these so-called assistants are designed to serve”, said LCFI Visiting Scholar Dr Yaqub Chaudhary.

“What people say when conversing, how they say it, and the type of inferences that can be made in real-time as a result, are far more intimate than just records of online interactions”

“We caution that AI tools are already being developed to elicit, infer, collect, record, understand, forecast, and ultimately manipulate and commodify human plans and purposes.”

Dr Jonnie Penn, an historian of technology from Cambridge’s LCFI, said: “For decades, attention has been the currency of the internet. Sharing your attention with social media platforms such as Facebook and Instagram drove the online economy.”

“Unless regulated, the intention economy will treat your motivations as the new currency. It will be a gold rush for those who target, steer, and sell human intentions.”

“We should start to consider the likely impact such a marketplace would have on human aspirations, including free and fair elections, a free press, and fair market competition, before we become victims of its unintended consequences.”

In a new Harvard Data Science Review paper, Penn and Chaudhary write that the intention economy will be the attention economy “plotted in time”: profiling how user attention and communicative style connects to patterns of behaviour and the choices we end up making.

“While some intentions are fleeting, classifying and targeting the intentions that persist will be extremely profitable for advertisers,” said Chaudhary.

In an intention economy, Large Language Models or LLMs could be used to target, at low cost, a user’s cadence, politics, vocabulary, age, gender, online history, and even preferences for flattery and ingratiation, write the researchers.

This information-gathering would be linked with brokered bidding networks to maximize the likelihood of achieving a given aim, such as selling a cinema trip (“You mentioned feeling overworked, shall I book you that movie ticket we’d talked about?”).

This could include steering conversations in the service of particular platforms, advertisers, businesses, and even political organisations, argue Penn and Chaudhary.

While researchers say the intention economy is currently an “aspiration” for the tech industry, they track early signs of this trend through published research and the hints dropped by several major tech players.

These include an open call for “data that expresses human intention… across any language, topic, and format” in a 2023 OpenAI blogpost, while the director of product at Shopify – an OpenAI partner – spoke of chatbots coming in “to explicitly get the user’s intent” at a conference the same year.

Nvidia’s CEO has spoken publicly of using LLMs to figure out intention and desire, while Meta released “Intentonomy” research, a dataset for human intent understanding, back in 2021.

In 2024, Apple’s new “App Intents” developer framework for connecting apps to Siri (Apple’s voice-controlled personal assistant), includes protocols to “predict actions someone might take in future” and “to suggest the app intent to someone in the future using predictions you [the developer] provide”.

“AI agents such as Meta’s CICERO are said to achieve human level play in the game Diplomacy, which is dependent on inferring and predicting intent, and using persuasive dialogue to advance one’s position,” said Chaudhary.

“These companies already sell our attention. To get the commercial edge, the logical next step is to use the technology they are clearly developing to forecast our intentions, and sell our desires before we have even fully comprehended what they are.”

Penn points out that these developments are not necessarily bad, but have the potential to be destructive. “Public awareness of what is coming is the key to ensuring we don’t go down the wrong path,” he said.

Conversational AI agents may become attuned to covertly influence your intentions, creating a new commercial frontier that researchers call the “intention economy”.

Public awareness of what is coming is the key to ensuring we don’t go down the wrong pathJonnie PennGetty/d3signYoung woman talking with AI voice virtual assistant on smartphone

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Yes

Desert locusts typically lead solitary lives until something - like intense rainfall - triggers them to swarm in vast numbers, often with devastating consequences. 

This migratory pest can reach plague proportions, and a swarm covering one square kilometre can consume enough food in one day to feed 35,000 people. Such extensive crop destruction pushes up local food prices and can lead to riots and mass starvation.

Now a team led by the University of Cambridge has developed a way to predict when and where desert locusts will swarm, so they can be dealt with before the problem gets out of hand. 

It uses weather forecast data from the UK Met Office, and state-of the-art computational models of the insects’ movements in the air, to predict where swarms will go as they search for new feeding and breeding grounds. The areas likely to be affected can then be sprayed with pesticides.

Until now, predicting and controlling locust swarms has been ‘hit and miss’, according to the researchers. Their new model, published today in the journal PLOS Computational Biology, will enable national agencies to respond quickly to a developing locust threat.

Desert locust control is a top priority for food security: it is the biggest migratory pest for smallholder farmers in many regions of Africa and Asia, and capable of long-distance travel across national boundaries.

Climate change is expected to drive more frequent desert locust swarms, by causing trigger events like cyclones and intense rainfall. These bring moisture to desert regions that allows plants to thrive, providing food for locusts that triggers their breeding.

“During a desert locust outbreak we can now predict where swarms will go several days in advance, so we can control them at particular sites. And if they’re not controlled at those sites, we can predict where they’ll go next so preparations can be made there,” said Dr Renata Retkute, a researcher in the University of Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences and first author of the paper.

“The important thing is to respond quickly if there’s likely to be a big locust upsurge, before it causes a major crop loss.  Huge swarms can lead to really desperate situations where people could starve,” said Professor Chris Gilligan in the University of Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences, senior author of the paper.

He added: “Our model will allow us to hit the ground running in future, rather than starting from scratch as has historically been the case.”

The team noticed the need for a comprehensive model of desert locust behaviour during the response to a massive upsurge over 2019-2021, which extended from Kenya to India and put huge strain on wheat production in these regions. The infestations destroyed sugarcane, sorghum, maize and root crops. The researchers say the scientific response was hampered by the need to gather and integrate information from a range of disparate sources.

“The response to the last locust upsurge was very ad-hoc, and less efficient than it could have been. We’ve created a comprehensive model that can be used next time to control this devastating pest,” said Retkute. 

Although models like this have been attempted before, this is the first that can rapidly and reliably predict swarm behaviour. It takes into account the insects’ lifecycle and their selection of breeding sites, and can forecast locust swarm movements both short and long-term. 

The new model has been rigorously tested using real surveillance and weather data from the last major locust upsurge. It will inform surveillance, early warning, and management of desert locust swarms by national governments, and international organisations like the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO).

The researchers say countries that haven’t experienced a locust upsurge in many years are often ill-prepared to respond, lacking the necessary surveillance teams, aircraft and pesticides. As climate change alters the movement and spread of major swarms, better planning is needed - making the new model a timely development.

The project involved collaborators at the FAO and the UK Met Office. It was funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Reference: Retkute, R., et al: ‘A framework for modelling desert locust population dynamics and large-scale dispersal.’ PLOS Computational Biology, December 2024. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012562
 

A new tool that predicts the behaviour of desert locust populations will help national agencies to manage huge swarms before they devastate food crops in Africa and Asia. 

The response to the last locust upsurge was very ad-hoc, and less efficient than it could have been. We’ve created a comprehensive model that can be used next time to control this devastating pest.Renata RetkuteKeith Cressman, FAOLocust swarm fills the skies in Ethiopia

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YesLicence type: Attribution-Noncommerical

Like a bear gorging itself on salmon before hibernating for the winter, or a much-needed nap after Christmas dinner, this black hole has overeaten to the point that it is lying dormant in its host galaxy.

An international team of astronomers, led by the University of Cambridge, used the NASA/ESA/CSA James Webb Space Telescope to detect this black hole in the early universe, just 800 million years after the Big Bang.

The black hole is huge – 400 million times the mass of our Sun – making it one of the most massive black holes discovered by Webb at this point in the universe’s development. The black hole is so enormous that it makes up roughly 40% of the total mass of its host galaxy: in comparison, most black holes in the local universe are roughly 0.1% of their host galaxy mass.

However, despite its gigantic size, this black hole is eating, or accreting, the gas it needs to grow at a very low rate – about 100 times below its theoretical maximum limit – making it essentially dormant.

Such an over-massive black hole so early in the universe, but one that isn’t growing, challenges existing models of how black holes develop. However, the researchers say that the most likely scenario is that black holes go through short periods of ultra-fast growth, followed by long periods of dormancy. Their results are reported in the journal Nature.

When black holes are ‘napping’, they are far less luminous, making them more difficult to spot, even with highly sensitive telescopes such as Webb. Black holes cannot be directly observed, but instead they are detected by the tell-tale glow of a swirling accretion disc, which forms near the black hole’s edges. When black holes are actively growing, the gas in the accretion disc becomes extremely hot and starts to glow and radiate energy in the ultraviolet range.

“Even though this black hole is dormant, its enormous size made it possible for us to detect,” said lead author Ignas Juodžbalis from Cambridge’s Kavli Institute for Cosmology. “Its dormant state allowed us to learn about the mass of the host galaxy as well. The early universe managed to produce some absolute monsters, even in relatively tiny galaxies.”

According to standard models, black holes form from the collapsed remnants of dead stars and accrete matter up to a predicted limit, known as the Eddington limit, where the pressure of radiation on matter overcomes the gravitational pull of the black hole. However, the sheer size of this black hole suggests that standard models may not adequately explain how these monsters form and grow.

“It’s possible that black holes are ‘born big’, which could explain why Webb has spotted huge black holes in the early universe,” said co-author Professor Roberto Maiolino, from the Kavli Institute and Cambridge’s Cavendish Laboratory. “But another possibility is they go through periods of hyperactivity, followed by long periods of dormancy.”

Working with colleagues from Italy, the Cambridge researchers conducted a range of computer simulations to model how this dormant black hole could have grown to such a massive size so early in the universe. They found that the most likely scenario is that black holes can exceed the Eddington limit for short periods, during which they grow very rapidly, followed by long periods of inactivity: the researchers say that black holes such as this one likely eat for five to ten million years, and sleep for about 100 million years.

“It sounds counterintuitive to explain a dormant black hole with periods of hyperactivity, but these short bursts allow it to grow quickly while spending most of its time napping,” said Maiolino.

Because the periods of dormancy are much longer than the periods of ultra-fast growth, it is in these periods that astronomers are most likely to detect black holes. “This was the first result I had as part of my PhD, and it took me a little while to appreciate just how remarkable it was,” said Juodžbalis. “It wasn’t until I started speaking with my colleagues on the theoretical side of astronomy that I was able to see the true significance of this black hole.”

Due to their low luminosities, dormant black holes are more challenging for astronomers to detect, but the researchers say this black hole is almost certainly the tip of a much larger iceberg, if black holes in the early universe spend most of their time in a dormant state.

“It’s likely that the vast majority of black holes out there are in this dormant state – I’m surprised we found this one, but I’m excited to think that there are so many more we could find,” said Maiolino.

The observations were obtained as part of the JWST Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES). The research was supported in part by the European Research Council and the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC), part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).

Reference:
Ignas Juodžbalis et al. ‘A dormant overmassive black hole in the early Universe.’ Nature (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08210-5

Scientists have spotted a massive black hole in the early universe that is ‘napping’ after stuffing itself with too much food.

Jiarong GuArtist’s impression of a black hole during one of its short periods of rapid growth

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Yes

View the High Court injunction here View the High Court injunction here (2.57 MB)

To view the High Court injunction, please follow the link below:

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Yes

The annual Trial VIIIs, the UK’s final rowing event of the year, serves as a dress rehearsal for The Boat Race, with two evenly matched Cambridge University Boat Club (CUBC) crews rowing the full Championship Course for the first and only time before 12–13 April 2025.

This year, all 31 Cambridge Colleges were represented at the start of trials. The crews showcased an exciting mix of seasoned experience and youthful energy, featuring international rowers and returning Blues alongside many College rowers proudly wearing Cambridge Blue for the first time.

Read the full race report on the CUBC website.

The Cambridge contenders for The Boat Race 2025 have become clearer after a thrilling day of action on the Thames.

Row360 / AllMarkOneMen’s VIIIs “Scylla” en route to victory

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Yes

A leading advocate for the rights of women and girls in Afghanistan, in particular the right to education, Joya is the founder of Rukhshana Media, a news agency dedicated to telling the stories of Afghan women in their own voices. Her appointment recognises her transformational work and reflects Hughes Hall’s mission to advance inclusive education.

Joya said: “In a time when, as a woman, I have been deprived of my basic rights in my own country, joining the extraordinary Hughes Hall team at the University of Cambridge is a great honour for me. I view this opportunity as a chance to step into a wellspring of knowledge, and I hope to learn from this team and bring what I learn here back to my people.”

Sir Laurie Bristow, President of Hughes Hall, welcomed Joya to the College: “Zahra’s work on behalf of Afghanistan’s women and girls has never been more urgent nor her own story more pertinent. Zahra’s work is about enabling Afghan women and girls to speak for themselves. It is about the right of all girls to receive an education. It is about challenging gender-based oppression and protecting the rights of some of the most vulnerable people in our world today.”

Read the full story on the Hughes Hall website.

Zahra Joya, an Afghan journalist and one of TIME magazine's Women of the Year 2022, has been appointed By-Fellow at Hughes Hall.

Zahra Joya on the cover of TIME magazine

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Yes

Photonic chips transmit and manipulate light instead of electricity, and offer significantly faster performance with lower power consumption than traditional electronic chips. 

The Cambridge Graphene Centre and Cornerstone Photonics Innovation Centre at the University of Southampton will partner with members from across Europe to host a pilot line, coordinated by the Institute of Photonic Sciences in Spain, combining state-of-the-art equipment and expertise from 20 research organisations.

The PIXEurope consortium has been selected by the European Commission and Chips Joint Undertaking, a European initiative aiming to bolster the semiconductor industry by fostering collaboration between member states and the private sector. The consortium is supported by €380m in total funding.

The UK participants will be backed by up to £4.2 million in funding from the Department of Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT), match-funded by Horizon Europe. The UK joined the EU’s Chips Joint Undertaking in March 2024, allowing the country to collaborate more closely with European partners on semiconductor innovation.

The new pilot line will combine state-of-the-art equipment and expertise from research organisations across 11 countries. It aims to encourage the adoption of cutting-edge photonic technologies across more industries to boost their efficiency.

Photonic chips are already essential across a wide range of applications, from tackling the unprecedented energy demands of datacentres, to enabling high-speed data transmission for mobile and satellite communications. In the future, these chips will become ever more important, unlocking new applications in healthcare, AI and quantum computing. 

Researchers at the Cambridge Graphene Centre will be responsible for the integration of graphene and related materials into photonic circuits for energy efficient, high-speed communications and quantum devices. “This may lead to life-changing products and services, with huge economic benefit for the UK and the world,” said Professor Andrea C. Ferrari, Director of the Cambridge Graphene Centre. 

The global market for photonic integrated circuits (PICs) production is expected to grow by more than 400% in the next 10 years. By the end of the decade, the global photonics market is expected to exceed €1,500bn, a figure comparable to the entire annual gross domestic product of Spain.

This growth is due to the demand from areas such as telecommunications, artificial intelligence, image sensing, automotive and mobility, medicine and healthcare, environmental care, renewable energy, defense and security, and a wide range of consumer applications.

The combination of microelectronic chips and photonic chips provides the necessary features and specifications for these applications. The former are responsible for information processing by manipulating electrons within circuits based on silicon and its variants, while the latter uses photons in the visible and infrared spectrum ranges in various materials.

The new pilot line aims to offer cutting-edge technological platforms, transforming and transferring innovative and disruptive integrated photonics processes and technologies to accelerate their industrial adoption. The objective is the creation of European-owned/made technology in a sector of capital importance for technological sovereignty, and the creation and maintenance of corresponding jobs in the UK and across Europe.

“My congratulations to Cornerstone and the Cambridge Graphene Centre on being selected to pioneer the new pilot line – taking a central role in driving semiconductor innovation to the next level, encouraging adoption of new technologies,” said Science Minister Lord Vallance. “The UK laid the foundations of silicon photonics in the 1990s, and by pooling our expertise with partners across Europe we can address urgent global challenges including energy consumption and efficiency.”

“The UK’s participation in the first Europe-wide photonics pilot line marks the start of the world’s first open access photonics integrated circuits ecosystem, stimulating new technology development with industry and catalyse disruptive innovation across the UK, while strengthening UK collaboration with top European institutions working in the field,” said Ferrari.

“PIXEurope is the first photonics pilot line that unifies the whole supply chain from design and fabrication, to testing and packaging, with technology platforms that will support a broad spectrum of applications,” said CORNERSTONE Coordinator Professor Calum Littlejohns. “I am delighted that CORNERSTONE will form a crucial part of this programme.”

The Chips JU will also launch new collaborative R&D calls on a range of topics in early 2025. UK companies and researchers are eligible to participate. 

The University of Cambridge is one of two UK participants named as part of the PIXEurope consortium, a collaboration between research organisations from across Europe which will develop and manufacture prototypes of their products based on photonic chips.

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Yes

Temperatures in cities are rising across the globe and urban heat stress is already a major problem causing illness, death, a surge in energy use to cool buildings down, heat-related social inequality issues and problems with urban infrastructure.

Some cities have already started implementing mitigation strategies, with tree planting prominent among them. But a University of Cambridge-led study now warns that planting the wrong species or the wrong combination of trees in suboptimal locations or arrangements can limit their benefits.

The study, published today in Communications Earth & Environment found that urban trees can lower pedestrian-level air temperature by up to 12°C. Its authors found that the introduction of trees reduced peak monthly temperatures to below 26°C in 83% of the cities studied, meeting the ‘thermal comfort threshold’. However, they also found that this cooling ability varies significantly around the world and is influenced by tree species traits, urban layout and climate conditions.

“Our study busts the myth that trees are the ultimate panacea for overheating cities across the globe,” said Dr Ronita Bardhan, Associate Professor of Sustainable Built Environment at Cambridge's Dept. of Architecture.

“Trees have a crucial role to play in cooling cities down but we need to plant them much more strategically to maximise the benefits which they can provide.”

Previous research on the cooling effects of urban trees has focused on specific climates or regions, and considered case studies in a fragmented way, leaving major gaps in our knowledge about unique tree cooling mechanisms and how these interact with diverse urban features.

To overcome this, the authors of this study analysed the findings of 182 studies – concerning 17 climates in 110 global cities or regions – published between 2010 and 2023, offering the first comprehensive global assessment of urban tree cooling.

During the day, trees cool cities in three ways: by blocking solar radiation; through evaporation of water via pores in their leaves; and by foliage aerodynamically changing airflow. At night, however, tree canopies can trap longwave radiation from the ground surface, due to aerodynamic resistance and ‘stomatal closure’ – the closing of microscopic pores on the surface of leaves partly in response to heat and drought stress.

Variation by climate type

The study found that urban trees generally cool cities more in hot and dry climates, and less in hot humid climates.

In the ‘tropical wet and dry or savanna’ climate, trees can cool cities by as much as 12 °C, as recorded in Nigeria. However, it was in this same climate that trees also warmed cities most at night, by up to 0.8°C.

Trees performed well in arid climates, cooling cities by just over 9°C and warming them at night by 0.4 °C.

In tropical rainforest climates, where humidity is higher, the daytime cooling effect dropped to approximately 2°C while the nighttime heating effect was 0.8 °C.

In temperate climates, trees can cool cities by up to 6°C and warm them by 1.5°C.

Using trees more strategically

The study points out that cities which have more open urban layouts are more likely to feature a mix of evergreen and deciduous trees of varying sizes. This, the researchers found, tends to result in greater cooling in temperate, continental and tropical climates.

The combined use of trees in these climates generally results in 0.5 °C more cooling than in cities where only deciduous or evergreen trees feature. This is because mixed trees can balance seasonal shading and sunlight, providing three-dimensional cooling at various heights.

In arid climates, however, the researchers found that evergreen species dominate and cool more effectively in the specific context of compact urban layouts such as Cairo in Egypt, or Dubai in UAE.

In general, trees cooled more effectively in open and low-rise cities in dry climates. In open urban layouts, cooling can be improved by about 0.4 °C because their larger green spaces allow for more and larger tree canopies and a greater mix of tree species.

“Our study provides context-specific greening guidelines for urban planners to more effectively harness tree cooling in the face of global warming,” Dr Ronita Bardhan said.

“Our results emphasize that urban planners not only need to give cities more green spaces, they need to plant the right mix of trees in optimal positions to maximize cooling benefits.”

 “Urban planners should plan for future warmer climates by choosing resilient species which will continue to thrive and maintain cooling benefits,” said Dr Bardhan, a Fellow of Selwyn College, Cambridge.

Matching trees to urban forms

The study goes further, arguing that species selection and placement needs to be compatible with urban forms. The orientation of the ‘street canyon’, local climate zones, aspect ratio, visible sky ratio and other urban features that influence the effects of trees all need to be carefully considered.

Although a higher degree of tree canopy cover in street canyons generally results in more cooling effects, excessively high cover may trap heat at the pedestrian level, especially in compact urban zones in high temperature climates. In such locations, narrow species and sparse planting strategies are recommended.

The researchers emphasise that we cannot rely entirely on trees to cool cities, and that solutions such as solar shading and reflective materials will continue to play an important role.

The researchers have developed an interactive database and map to enable users to estimate the cooling efficacy of strategies based on data from cities with similar climates and urban structures.

Reference

H. Li et al., ‘Cooling efficacy of trees across cities is determined by background climate, urban morphology, and tree trait’, Communications Earth & Environment (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01908-4

While trees can cool some cities significantly during the day, new research shows that tree canopies can also trap heat and raise temperatures at night. The study aims to help urban planners choose the best combinations of trees and planting locations to combat urban heat stress.

Trees have a crucial role to play in cooling cities down but we need to plant them much more strategically to maximise the benefits which they can provideRonita Bardhanhannahisabelnic via Flikr (Public domain)Trees in an Indian city street. Photo: hannahisabelnic via Flikr (Public domain)

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YesLicence type: Public Domain

Professor Richards joins Cambridge from the University of Oxford, where he has been since 2019. His particular research interest is the demonstration of clinical proof of concept of novel therapeutics through the application of experimental medicine techniques, especially human challenge studies.

As Climax Professor of Clinical Therapeutics, director of the Oxford Clinical Trial Research Unit (OCTRU), and the NIHR Oxford Clinical Research Facility, he led a broad portfolio focused on new medicines for multiple conditions. His focus has been the acceleration of promising new drug treatments through better decision-making in early phase clinical trials.

Professor Richards also brings with him a wealth of experience in a number of Pharmaceutical R&D clinical development roles. In 2003 he joined GSK and held a number of roles of increasing responsibility, latterly as Head of Clinical Pharmacology and Experimental Medicine, including directorship of GSK’s phase 1 and experimental medicine unit in Cambridge (CUC).

Commenting on his appointment, Professor Richards said: “As a clinical pharmacologist, I have been fortunate to work across a broad range of therapeutic areas over the years. I am excited by the breadth and depth of expertise within the Department of Medicine and look forward to working with the first-class scientific team. My goal is to work with the Department team, the Clinical School, and hospitals to maximise the impact of the important work taking place in Cambridge.”

Members of the department’s leadership team are looking forward to the continued development of the department under Professor Richards, building on its legacy of collaboration and groundbreaking translational research to drive our future success.

Professor Mark Wills, Interim Head of Department of Medicine, said: “Duncan brings to his new role a fantastic breadth of experience, which encompasses his clinical speciality in pharmacology, extensive experience of working within the pharmaceutical industry R&D at senior levels and most recently establishing academic clinical trials units and human challenge research facilities.

“I am very excited to welcome Duncan to the Department and looking forward to working with him, as he takes on the role of delivering of the Department of Medicine’s vision to increase the efficacy of translation of its world class fundamental research, and its impact upon clinical practice and patient wellbeing.”

Menna Clatworthy, Professor of Translational Immunology and Director of the Cambridge Institute for Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease (CITIID), said: "Duncan has a wealth of leadership experience in biomedicine, in both academia and pharma. That skillset will be invaluable in ensuring the Department of Medicine continues to deliver world-leading research to transform patient outcomes."

Charlotte Summers, Professor of Intensive Care Medicine and Director of the Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart & Lung Research Institute, said: “Duncan’s exemplary track record of translating fundamental scientific discoveries into therapies that benefit patients will help us further increase the impact of our research as we continue our mission to improve human health.”

The appointment underpins the recently announced five-year collaboration between GSK and the University of Cambridge, the Cambridge-GSK Translational Immunology Collaboration (CG-TIC). The £50 million investment will accelerate research and development in kidney and respiratory diseases to improve patient outcomes.

Professor Richards will assume the role in February 2025, replacing Interim Head of Department Dr Mark Wills who was appointed after the departure of Professor Ken Smith in January 2024.  Dr Wills will continue as Director of Research and Deputy Head of the Department of Medicine as well as leading his research group. 

Professor Richards trained in medicine at Oxford University and after junior doctor roles in London, he returned to Oxford as Clinical Lecturer in Clinical Pharmacology. His DM thesis research was on a translational model using platelet ion flux to interrogate angiotensin biology and he is author of the Oxford Handbook of Practical Drug Therapy and the 3rd edition of Drug Discovery and Development.

Professor Richards has been a core member of the UK COVID-19 Therapeutics Advisory Panel. He is a member of the Oxford Bioescalator Management Board, UK Prix Galien Prize Committee, and the therapeutic advisory committee of several national platform clinical trials.

Professor Duncan Richards has today been announced as the new Head of the Department of Medicine at the University of Cambridge.

I am excited by the breadth and depth of expertise within the Department of Medicine and look forward to working with the first-class scientific teamDuncan Richards

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Yes

The technique, called hyperpolarised carbon-13 imaging, can increase the detected signal in an MRI scanner by more than 10,000 times. Scientists have found that the technique can distinguish between two different subtypes of ovarian cancer, to reveal their sensitivities to treatment.

They used it to look at patient-derived cell models that closely mimic the behaviour of human high grade serous ovarian cancer, the most common lethal form of the disease. The technique clearly shows whether a tumour is sensitive or resistant to Carboplatin, one of the standard first-line chemotherapy treatments for ovarian cancer. 

This will enable oncologists to predict how well a patient will respond to treatment, and to see how well the treatment is working within the first 48 hours. 

Different forms of ovarian cancer respond differently to drug treatments. With current tests, patients typically wait for weeks or months to find out whether their cancer is responding to treatment. The rapid feedback provided by this new technique will help oncologists to adjust and personalise treatment for each patient within days.

The study compared the hyperpolarised imaging technique with results from Positron Emission Tomography (PET) scans, which are already widely used in clinical practice. The results shows that PET did not pick up the metabolic differences between different tumour subtypes, so could not predict the type of tumour present.

The report is published today in the journal Oncogene.

“This technique tells us how aggressive an ovarian cancer tumour is, and could allow doctors to assess multiple tumours in a patient to give a more holistic assessment of disease prognosis so the most appropriate treatment can be selected,” said Professor Kevin Brindle in the University of Cambridge’s Department of Biochemistry, senior author of the report. 

Ovarian cancer patients often have multiple tumours spread throughout their abdomen. It isn’t possible to take biopsies of all of them, and they may be of different subtypes that respond differently to treatment. MRI is non-invasive, and the hyperpolarised imaging technique will allow oncologists to look at all the tumours at once.

Brindle added: “We can image a tumour pre-treatment to predict how likely it is to respond, and then we can image again immediately after treatment to confirm whether it has indeed responded. This will help doctors to select the most appropriate treatment for each patient and adjust this as necessary. 

“One of the questions cancer patients ask most often is whether their treatment is working. If doctors can speed their patients onto the best treatment, then it’s clearly of benefit.”

The next step is to trial the technique in ovarian cancer patients, which the scientists anticipate within the next few years.

Hyperpolarised carbon-13 imaging uses an injectable solution containing a ‘labelled’ form of the naturally occurring molecule pyruvate. The pyruvate enters the cells of the body, and the scan shows the rate at which it is broken down - or metabolised – into a molecule called lactate. The rate of this metabolism reveals the tumour subtype and thus its sensitivity to treatment.

This study adds to the evidence for the value of the hyperpolarised carbon-13 imaging technique for wider clinical use. 

Brindle, who also works at the Cancer Research UK Cambridge Institute, has been developing this imaging technique to investigate different cancers for the last two decades, including breast, prostate and glioblastoma - a common and aggressive type of brain tumour. Glioblastoma also shows different subtypes that vary in their metabolism, which can be imaged to predict their response to treatment. The first clinical study in Cambridge, which was published in 2020, was in breast cancer patients.

Each year about 7,500 women in the UK are diagnosed with ovarian cancer - around 5,000 of these will have the most aggressive form of the disease, called high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC). 

The cure rate for all forms of ovarian cancer is very low and currently only 43% of women in England survive five years beyond diagnosis. Symptoms can easily be missed, allowing the disease to spread before a woman is diagnosed - and this makes imaging and treatment challenging. 

The research was funded by Cancer Research UK.

Reference: Chia, M.L.: ‘Metabolic imaging distinguishes ovarian cancer subtypes and detects their early and variable responses to treatment.’ Oncogene, December 2024. DOI: 10.1038/s41388-024-03231-w

An MRI-based imaging technique developed at the University of Cambridge predicts the response of ovarian cancer tumours to treatment, and rapidly reveals how well treatment is working, in patient-derived cell models.

We can image a tumour pre-treatment to predict how likely it is to respond, and then we can image again immediately after treatment to confirm whether it has indeed respondedKevin Brindle

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Yes

Researchers hope that early detection, through the simple urine test, could enable earlier treatment interventions, significantly improving patient outcomes and prognosis. Around 36,600 lives are saved from lung cancer in the UK every year, according to new analysis from Cancer Research UK.

Professor Ljiljana Fruk and Dr Daniel Munoz Espin and their teams at the University of Cambridge are leading on the research, funded by Cancer Research UK.

The work, at Cambridge’s Department of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology, and the Early Cancer Institute, will provide a cheap, affordable sensor that uses urine samples to help doctors detect lung cancer before the disease develops.

Lung cancer has a poor prognosis for many patients because often there are no noticeable symptoms until it has spread through the lungs or into other parts of the body. The new urine test will allow doctors to spot the disease before it develops.

To create the test, scientists looked at proteins excreted by senescent cells: “zombie” cells which are alive but unable to grow and divide. It’s these cells that cause tissue damage by reprogramming their immediate environment to help promote the emergence of cancer cells.

Now, researchers have developed an injectable sensor that interacts with zombie cell proteins and releases easily detectable compound into urine, signalling their presence.

“Early detection of cancer requires cost-effective tools and strategies that enable detection to happen quickly and accurately,” said Fruk. “We designed a test based on peptide-cleaving proteins, which are found at higher levels in the presence of zombie cells, and in turn appear in the early stages of cancer.

“Ultimately, we want to develop a urine test that could help doctors identify signs of the early stages of cancer – potentially months or even years before noticeable symptoms appear.”

As well as targeting lung cancer, Fruk hopes her research, along with joint efforts across other university departments, will result in the development of probes capable of detecting other cancers.

“We have almost completed a functional urine test to detect ‘zombie' cells in lung cancer, which will spot cancer earlier and avoid the need for invasive procedures, but this test does have potential for other cancers,” she said. “Developing more efficient cancer treatments requires earlier detection and better therapies, but also work with other disciplines for a more holistic view of the disease, which is an essential part of my research.”

From uncovering the causes of lung cancer to pioneering drugs to treat it, Cancer Research UK has helped power progress for people affected by lung cancer. Over the last 10 years, the charity has invested over £231 million in lung cancer research.

“Cancer Research UK has played a key role in advancing lung cancer research and improving survival,” said Dr Iain Foulkes, Cancer Research UK’s executive director of research and innovation. “This project being led by Professor Fruk is another example of our commitment to driving progress so that more people can live longer, better lives, free from the fear of cancer.”

Adapted from a Cancer Research UK media release. 

Cambridge scientists have developed a urine test for early detection of lung cancer. The test, the first of its kind, detects ‘zombie’ cells that could indicate the first signs of the disease.

koto_feja via Getty ImagesClose-up of cancer cells

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Yes

The Cambridge Centre for Advanced Research and Education in Singapore (CARES) is hosting two projects that aim to aid Singapore’s business transition away from petrochemicals towards a net-zero emissions target by 2050.

Under the newly launched CREATE Thematic Programme in Decarbonisation supported by the National Research Foundation (NRF), the two projects will investigate non-fossil fuel-based pathways for Singapore’s chemical manufacturing industry and energy systems. 

Deputy Prime Minister and Chairman of the NRF, Mr Heng Swee Keat toured the first of three laboratories for the programme to view the technical capabilities required for the various project teams, including CARES’ projects on the Sustainable Manufacture of Molecules and Materials in Singapore (SM3), and Hydrogen and Ammonia Combustion in Singapore (HYCOMBS).

SM3 aims to provide a path to a net-zero, high-value chemical manufacturing industry in Singapore. Its core goal is to address the dependency of producers of performance chemicals on starting materials that typically come from fossil-based carbon sources. The SM3 team hope to develop effective synthetic methods that best convert cheap and abundant fossil-free raw materials into high-value molecules, for use in sectors such as medicines and agrochemicals.

In project HYCOMBS, universities from Singapore, UK, Japan, France and Norway will work together to investigate the underlying combustion process of hydrogen and ammonia to minimise pollutants and accelerate industry innovation. 

As part of the lab demonstrations on decarbonisation, CARES showcased an additional ongoing activity with City Energy investigating hydrogen-rich town gas for residential and commercial cooking stoves.

Mr Heng Swee Keat said: "The need to tackle climate change and its impact grows ever more urgent. During my visit to Cambridge CARES (Centre for Advanced Research and Education in Singapore) — Cambridge University's first and only research centre outside the UK — I witnessed how research and international collaboration are driving innovative solutions to combat climate change, particularly in the area of decarbonisation.

"In just a decade, CARES has established cutting-edge R&D facilities dedicated to decarbonisation projects that not only reduce emissions but also pave the way for a more sustainable future for Singapore. From hydrogen combustion and laser-based combustion diagnostics to the development of cleaner fuels for gas stoves, their work is closely aligned with the goals outlined in our Singapore Green Plan 2030, and achieving Singapore’s net-zero emissions goal by 2050.

"It was encouraging to hear from Director of CARES, Professor Markus Kraft, as he shared how being based in the CREATE facility at the National University of Singapore facilitates interactions with researchers from diverse countries and disciplines. This collaborative and interdisciplinary approach embodies the essence of research — working together to address shared global challenges."

Since 2013, CARES has been involved in research programmes with Nanyang Technological University and the National University of Singapore as the University of Cambridge’s first overseas centre. One of its early flagship programmes, the Centre for Carbon Reduction in Chemical Technologies (C4T), has investigated areas from sustainable reaction engineering, electrochemistry, and maritime decarbonisation to digitalisation.

By building on this foundation and leveraging the local talent pool, CARES has attracted new partners from international universities and institutes for SM3 and HYCOMBS. This includes EPFL, the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, which will provide skills in the domain AI for chemistry. CNRS, the French National Centre for Scientific Research, the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, and Tohoku University from Japan will contribute technical equipment and key talent in hydrogen and ammonia combustion.

Adapted from a release originally published by CARES. 

Mr Heng Swee Keat, Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore and Chairman of the National Research Foundation (NRF) paid a visit to the University of Cambridge’s overseas research centre in Singapore and viewed its technical capabilities for decarbonisation research.

Cambridge CARES/Back Button MediaDeputy Prime Minister of Singapore, Mr Heng Swee Keat, viewing decarbonisation activities at Cambridge CARES

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Yes

The recent conflict in Lebanon has deepened a national education crisis in which children have already lost up to 60% of school time over the past six years, new research warns.

The report, by the Centre for Lebanese Studies and the University of Cambridge’s REAL Centre, is the first to assess the state of education since Israel began its ground offensive in Lebanon in October. Using surveys and interviews with parents and teachers, it provides a snapshot of the situation a few weeks before the new ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.

The study stresses that even if that ceasefire holds, a co-ordinated, forward-thinking response is essential to prevent further learning losses in an already fragile education system.

Before the recent conflict, Lebanese schools had endured over a decade of compounded crises, including an influx of Palestinian and Syrian refugees, a major financial crisis, the 2020 Beirut explosion, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Since 2018, the authors calculate, students have missed more than 760 teaching days due to strikes, disruption and closures.

The report shows that the effects of the latest violence have been uneven, depending on where families and teachers are based and their immediate circumstances. Refugee children and students with disabilities have been disproportionately affected and are among those who face the greatest risk of missing out further, even as the education system struggles to recover.

Dr Maha Shuayb, Director of the Centre for Lebanese Studies and a researcher at the University of Cambridge’s Faculty of Education: “The war has deepened learning losses that were already near-catastrophic. Whatever happens next, flexible, inclusive, multi-agency strategies are urgently needed to ensure education reaches those who need it most.”

“Without thorough response planning, existing inequalities will become more entrenched, leaving entire sections of the younger generation behind.”

The report is the second in a series examining the impact of war on education in the Middle East. The previous report, on Gaza, warned that conflict there could set children’s education back by several years.

REAL Centre Director Prof Pauline Rose said: “In Lebanon and Gaza, it is not only clear that violence, displacement and trauma are causing devastating learning losses; we also need a much more co-ordinated response. Education should not be an afterthought in times of crisis; it is vital to future stability.”

More than 1.3 million civilians have been displaced in Lebanon since Israel escalated its military operations. The new study was undertaken at the end of October, and involved a survey with 1,151 parents and teachers, supplemented with focus groups and interviews.

The authors calculate that by November, over 1 million students and 45,000 teachers had been directly affected by the conflict. About 40% of public (state-run) schools had been converted into shelters. A further 30% were in war zones, severely limiting space for schooling.

Lebanon’s Ministry of Education and Higher Education (MEHE) attempted to reopen  public schools on 4 November, but the study shows that for many people, violence, displacement and inadequate infrastructure impeded the resumption. Researchers found that 303 public schools were running in-person learning and 297 functioning online, but in conflict-hit regions like Baalbek-Hermel, the South, and Nabatiyyeh, barely any were physically open.

Many of the survey participants were living in shelters or overcrowded shared accommodation, where online learning – often the only option available – was difficult. Financial pressures, exacerbated by the war, have further disrupted education. 77% of parents and 66% of teachers said the conflict had reduced their incomes amid rising living costs.

While all teachers and parents wanted education to resume, the study therefore found that they were not universally prepared. Only 19% of teachers in areas heavily affected by the fighting, for example, considered restarting education a “high priority”. They also tended to prefer online learning, often for safety reasons, while those in less disrupted regions felt better prepared to resume education in-person.

Both parents and teachers highlighted the resource shortages hindering learning. Many lacked reliable internet, digital devices or even electricity. For example, only 62% of teachers and 49% of parents said they had an internet connection.

The report also highlights the extremely difficult experiences of Palestinian and Syrian refugee children and those with disabilities: groups that were disproportionately affected by systemic inequalities before the conflict began.

The authors estimate that as many as 5,000 children with disabilities could be out of school, with some parents reluctant to send children back due to a lack of inclusive provision. Refugee families, meanwhile, are among those who most urgently need food, shelter and financial help. Despite this, Syrian parents were statistically more likely to consider education a high priority. This may reflect concerns that they have been overlooked in MEHE’s plans.

Some families and teachers suggested the government’s November restart was proving chimerical. “The authorities claim that the school year has been launched successfully, but this isn’t reflective of reality,” one teacher said. “It feels more like a drive for revenue than a genuine commitment.”

MEHE’s attempts at a uniform strategy, the researchers stress, will not help everyone. “The focus has largely been on resuming schooling, with little attention paid to quality of learning," they write, adding that there is a need for a far more inclusive response plan, involving tailored strategies which reflect the different experiences of communities on the ground.

The report adds that this will require much closer collaboration between government agencies, NGOs, universities, and disability-focused organisations to address many of the problems raised by the analysis, such as financial instability, a lack of online learning infrastructure, and insufficient digital teaching capacity.

Even if the ceasefire holds, challenges remain. Many displaced families may not return home for weeks, while schools may still be used as shelters or require repairs. Temporary learning spaces, targeted infrastructure restoration, and trauma-informed approaches to helping children who need psychosocial learning recovery, will all be required.

Yusuf Sayed, Professor of Education, University of Cambridge said: “Everyone hopes that Lebanon will return to normality, but we have grave reservations about the quality, consistency and accessibility of education in the medium term. Addressing that requires better data collection and monitoring, a flexible plan and multi-agency support. Our working assumption should be that for more than a million children, this crisis is far from over.”

Israel-Hezbollah conflict has deepened an education crisis in which children have lost up to 60% of schooling in six years, study shows

Russell Watkins/Department for International DevelopmentSyrian refugee children in a Lebanese school classroom

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YesLicence type: Attribution-ShareAlike

Around a third (32%) of people who grew up in Chicago have carried a concealed firearm on the city streets at least once by the time they turn 40 years old, according to a major study of gun usage taking in a quarter of a century of data.

Urban sociologists behind the research argue that such carry rates are likely to be similar across many other major US cities. 

The research suggests that almost half of men (48%) have carried a concealed gun by the age of 40, compared to just 16% of women.*

The study, published in Science Advances, is one of the few to track gun usage in the same US population across decades, and reveals that two-thirds of those who carried a gun in the past year started doing so in adulthood, compared to only a third who began in adolescence.

The research also found that gun carrying in adolescence and adulthood may occur in response to different concerns. Those who started carrying in their teens often picked up a handgun in response to experiencing gun violence first-hand.** This was not true of those who began carrying over the age of 21.

“Among adolescents, we found a strong association between either witnessing a shooting or being shot, and beginning to carry soon after,” said Dr Charles Lanfear, study lead author from the University of Cambridge.

“The majority of people who ever carry a concealed handgun start doing so in adulthood. For those adults, we found no link between direct exposure to gun violence and gun carrying,” said Lanfear from Cambridge’s Institute of Criminology.

“This pattern suggests that gun carrying among adults may be linked to perceived threats of a more general nature, such as the idea that the world is a dangerous place, and police are incapable of ensuring public safety. Whereas gun carrying in adolescence may more often be related to direct experiences of gun violence.

“One simple but crucial fact is clear from our study, that carrying a concealed firearm is now a common event in the life course for Americans,” Lanfear said.

In the US between 1995 and 2021 some 89% of firearm homicides were committed with a handgun. However, despite the US gun stock doubling over the past quarter-century, and homicides spiking in COVID-era America, little is known about when and why people start carrying handguns.

The latest study was conducted by researchers from the University of Cambridge, University of Pennsylvania and Harvard University. Data was taken from a representative sample of 3,403 children originally from Chicago who were tracked over a 25-year period between 1994 and 2021.

When data-gathering began in the mid-90s, children were drawn at random from 80 of Chicago’s 343 neighbourhoods and from across the racial and socioeconomic spectrum, as part of a major longitudinal study run by Harvard.

The new analysis of this huge tranche of data reveals what researchers have called “dual pathways” of concealed gun carrying: those who start in adolescence and those who start in adulthood, with the cut-off being the 21st birthday – the legal age for purchasing and carrying a handgun. 

In addition to findings on why people carry, the team discovered that most people who carry a gun in their teens do not continue in later life, with only 37% still carrying in 2021. Those who start carrying handguns in adulthood are more persistent, with 85% still taking a gun out in public in 2021.   

Moreover, the use of guns – whether it be shooting someone, shooting at someone, or brandishing a gun in self-defense – differs among the two groups.

Teenage gun-carriers that fired or brandished their weapons all did so for the first time before adulthood. “We found that no one who began carrying a gun in adolescence ended up using it for the first time after the age of twenty-one,” said Lanfear.

Those who picked up a gun in adulthood had a relatively steady rate of first usage over time, so that by middle age (40 years old) both groups of carriers had reached almost identical levels of gun usage: with around 40% of carriers having used a gun.

Researchers found a racial component to gun-carrying. Black individuals carried at rates over two times as great as those of Hispanic and white individuals. However, a previous study by the same team showed that Black city residents were twice as likely as White residents to witness a shooting by age 40.

In fact, the research found that those least likely to witness gun violence – White residents – are the most likely to start carrying a firearm in response to gun violence exposure.

While all self-described gun-carriers – whether they started in adolescence or adulthood –are more likely to have an arrest history compared to those who don’t carry guns, the researchers say their study reveals “stark” differences in why and when and for how long people take guns onto the streets. 

Added Lanfear: “These findings take on new relevance given recent social changes in America. In 2020 and 2021 the nation saw a sharp increase in adult gun carrying, coinciding with an uptick in gun purchases following the outbreak of COVID-19 and the murder of George Floyd. We found the same trends in adult gun-carrying among our study sample.”

Major 25-year study reveals a “dual pathway” for when people start carrying. 

Carrying a concealed firearm is now a common event in the life course for AmericansCharles LanfearJamie Carroll/GettyA man drawing a conceal carry pistol from an inside the waistband holsterNotes:

* The researchers found female gun-carrying to be uncommon. However, they detected a rapid increase in some cohorts at the age of 35, but these increases all occurred during the first year of COVID-19 (2020). Researchers say this is consistent with other research finding large COVID-era increases in gun ownership among groups with historically lower rates of ownership.

**Exposure to gun violence before age 15 is associated with a doubling in the probability of carrying a concealed gun between ages 15 and 21. Around 44% of adolescent gun carriers started carrying after being exposed to gun violence. In contrast, exposure to gun violence at an older age is not statistically or substantively associated with gun-carrying. Direct exposure to gun violence after age 21 is far less frequent than during adolescence.

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Yes