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Updated estimates of future housing demand and need in the West Midlands, incorporating revised household projections

The West Midlands Regional Assembly commissioned CCHPR to update estimates of need for affordable housing in the West Midlands from 2006 to 2026. The updates to the estimates, originally done by CCHPR in 2007, will take account of the revised household projections, and comment on the implications of the housing market downturn for the region's housing strategy.

In 2007 the West Midlands Regional Assembly (WMRA) commissioned the CCHPR to produce estimates of housing need to the year 2026. This work was commissioned to support the development of the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS). The main estimates of need were produced by CCHPR using a demographic model, colloquially known as the “Holman's method”, which at its core applies tenure propensities by age and household type to the government's household projections, issued by the Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG). This produces a base division of future households into social and private sector housing for the region and for its constituent Housing Market Areas. These are modified to produce an estimate for the intermediate sector, and to take account of other losses to stock, such as through the Right-to-Buy. A finalised version of CCHPR's report and estimates was delivered in January 2008 and accepted by WMRA. 

On 11 March 2009, CLG will issue updated figures for the household projections, which take account of the most recent data on population growth, migration and so forth. The West Midlands RSS is shortly to undergo its Examination in Public (EiP). CCHPR will provide WMRA with estimates of future housing need for the EiP that are derived from the most up-to-date published projections. WMRA also requires that the paper presented to the EiP comment upon the implications of the changed economic and housing market circumstances on the estimates, and that the estimates take account of other updated data sources where appropriate.

CCHPR Contact

Funder

West Midlands Regional Assembly

Project Start Date

1st March 2009