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Modelling the future take-up of low-cost home ownership products

This was a two stage project. Stage 1 involved modelling tenure choice using a logit model and data from CORE pooled with Survey of English Housing over 6 years; Stage 2 involved entering the coefficients from the logit model onto an Excel spreadsheet in order to enable scenario planning and sensitivity testing. The outputs allowed DCLG to estimate the likely take-up of different low-cost home ownership products.

The aims of the project are to:

  1. help DCLG to understand better the drivers behind potential future take-up of LCHO assistance;
  2. enable DCLG to estimate better the likely take-up of different LCHO products, including Right-to-Buy (and RTA) and HomeBuy and the factors that influence this take-up; and
  3. do this through the production of a robust model which enables estimates of take-up to be provided and which can easily be adapted to examine different products / assess the impact of varying assumptions.

The main problem is likely to be the robustness of available data. This is because low cost home ownership is currently such a small proportion of the total stock so that sample sizes are small, making analysis of tenure choice difficult. It is relatively straightforward to estimate the groups of households who are eligible for different low cost home ownership products, but much more difficult to predict actual take-up.

CCHPR Contact

Funder

Department for Communities and Local Government

Project Start Date

1st November 2006